StockSHAKERS

McClellan Oscilator is indicating very oversold ready for a bounce at these levels.
The Advance Decline is indicating very oversold as well.
Any dip in the morning should be played for the reversal.We may be setting up for a first hour bounce.

Transports are poised to dip further, Gold may be heading to 1045.

S&P 500 showing weakness here. However if the US Dollar strengthens the markets will continue the fluctuations we are now seeing.

DJ Retrace to the 20DMA had a minor bounce, not much conviction here.

CCL showing signs of setting up for a bounce soon.

The US Dollar continues to put in new lows.

AMZN
MSFT
INTC
BIDU
GOOG
AAPL

….Long

US Stockmarket trend indentification and amplification for the trading session Wednesday 10/28/09

Tags: long, market projections, trading ideas, Wednesdays Projections

27Oct

BIDU Nov 2009 400.0000 call sold 12:35 PM

breaking market news, breaking news, breaking stock market news, breaking stock news, breaking wall street news, daily stock picks, daily stock tips, daytrades, free stock info, free stock picks, free stock tips, short term investments, stockmarket analysis, technical analysis, trading, trading ideas, trend No Comments

BIDU Nov 2009 400.0000 call sold 12:35 PM

Bought 3.40 - Sold 12.00

Good trade.
Congratulations Stockshakers
(We kept a partial position open.)

BIDU Nov 2009 400.0000 call

(OPR: BPJKT.X)

Last Trade:	9.40
Trade Time:	3:59pm ET
Change:	33.10 (77.88%)
Prev Close:	42.50
Open:	5.00
Bid:	9.30
Ask:	9.50

Day’s Range:	3.40 - 12.00
Contract Range:	15.50 - 47.80
Volume:	4,947
Open Interest:	1,149
Strike:	400.00
Expire Date:	20-Nov-09

Tags: BIDU Calls Sold

27Oct

Trading the BIDU Call Options today

daily stock picks, daily stock tips, daytrades, free stock info, free stock picks, free stock tips, short term investments, stocks, technical analysis, trading, trading ideas, trend No Comments

BIDU had bad news. They are gonna get over punished initially.

This will come back, The institutions have too much at stake notto bid this back up (at least today)

Buying the Nov 400.00 calls on the open.
We will sell at least some of them later in the day.

Tags: BIDU Call options, day trading, intraday trades

27Oct

Let the whipsaw begin

daily stock picks, daily stock tips, daytrades, free stock info, free stock picks, market analysis, short term investments, stockmarket analysis, technical analysis, trading, trading ideas, trend No Comments

What a whipsaw Mondays trading session was.
Expect more of the same.

Stockshakers are swing trading here.
Buying GRA on the pull back 10/22/09 Nov. 22.50 calls
Sold them Monday for a gain of 60%.

More of the best plays are developing on the short side.

More to come soon…

Tags: daytrades, options, shorts, Whipsaw

25Oct

Dow Futures are pointed just slightly up on Sunday night 10/25/09

daily stock picks, daily stock tips, daytrades, free stock info, free stock picks, free stock tips, global economy, government, market analysis, market projections, short term investments, stockmarket analysis, stocks, structured settlements, technical analysis, trading, trading ideas, trend, usa economics, watchlists No Comments

Dow Futures are pointed just slightly up on Sunday night 10/25/09

The 2009 October Low for the Dow 30 at 9430 and the Septemebr 2009 low for the DOW 30 at 9252 on 09/03/09 loom as possible key areas to watch for a possible retracement. These levels need to hold if we start to see selling from this weeks GDP numbers. There is a high likelyhood that the glowing news we have been hearing may be overshadowed by the stark reality of the GDP figures. Earnings numbers can and should remain healthy this week. Amazon is just another example of the power of tech, Technology was the leading sector on the week up almost +1%. Amazon was up 24.3% for the week. AAPL, MSFT, AMZN, the list grows so long, but keep in mind that stocks have grown 80% from the lows in many cases.

Some Tech candidates to watch for potential takeovers:

RVBD

BRCD

JNPR

FFIV

BMC

RHT

CTXS

CVLT

PAR

NTAP

NVTL

There is a higher likelyhood of us being closer to the end run than the middle at this point. Taking some off the table here seems like a wise move. Reduce the risk ratios and seek higher risk to reward trades. Inflation will be an issue for all of us soon (Currently up +3.7% from September 2009 from September of 2008 Annual, Unadjusted)and the US Fed will start to raise rates.

When the rates rise with the US Dollar at such weak levels and the tax benefits ending that have been instrumental in generating the only spark in US existing home sales, we will be in a tight spot.

The turbulance may be excrutiating for many.

Keeping inflation in check remains a serious matter for all of us residing the USA. But the Jobs, Where are the jobs? We will create 1 million jobs somehow morphed into we have saved 1 million jobs. Hmmmm? This math doesn’t add up. We need job generation to speed up the recovery efforts. The Us Housing Market is in dire need of a plan that will insure the transfer of equity. When banks create loans and the money starts to move businesses have a fighting chance to keep the doors open. The USA consumer is one of the strongest forces on the planet. Give us a fighting chance and we will contribute to the recovery efforts.

If this rally fails (We have early indications of weakening) Copper and the US Dollar are areas to keep an eye on. One of the most frequent questions we recieve is what should I look for as a sign that we are about to revers direction. Time frame is of course the deciding factor, but traditionally look for divergences and for the new highs to slow down. The S&P 500 has stalled near the 50% retracement levels, this may be a sign of things to come if we don’t see volume grow. There is still too much money on the sidelines. As always watch for growing volatility, this week the VIX index reached new lows for the year. Looking at the VIX in a candlestick chart the last three days of the week created a unique pattern that historically indicates a reversal may be pending.

The McClellan Summation Index is pointing to weakness forming. Divergence can start the slide down a slippery slope. Keep an eye on this indicator for confirmation of weakness.

We noted on the 21st that The McClellan Summation Index turned down short term three days ago, and was down again yesterday. The October high in SPY was not confirmed by a new high in The McClellan Summation Index. Caution would appear to be in order.

Know that energy stands a solid chance to continue to rise in valuation along with commodities in general. The metals are in rare air. When fear of US Dollar weakness reaches these levels this would appear to be the most likely side effect.

Last week’s oil price break above $75 was an essential catalyst in accelerating the pace of USD selling beyond $1.50 in EUR/USD, 0.93 in AUD/USD, and 1.03 in USD/CAD. Technically, the next oil barrier emerges at $82.00 (100-week MA), a break of which would extend the rally towards $89.90. Coincidently, U.S. equity indexes also face their next resistance at the 100-week MA (1,100 for S&P and 10,209 for the Dow). But a more important landmark for the S&P 500 stands at 1,121, which marks the 50% retracement of the decline from the October 2007 high to the March 2009 low.

Recall how oil prices repetitively failed to break its 200-week MA of about $75 in August and September until recurring dollar weakness (hawkish non-U.S. central banks) empowered oil traders to breach the key level. The simultaneous technical resistance in both of these high profile instruments (U.S. crude and S&P 500) may well dissuade the accumulation of fresh risk appetite. And Wednesday’s downgrade of Wells Fargo may have been instrumental in stepping up trading volumes in a down day. But the only viable means for dollar bulls to see hope again is the implementation of the exit strategy. Short of such implementation, earnings disappointments and/or negative guidance, FX traders will see little resistance to selling the dollar.

The Fed needs to stop talking about the US dollar

Federal Reserve officials should either get the same vigorous training when making statements about the U.S. dollar or completely refrain from taking about it, and allowing the U.S. Treasury exclusive authority to comment on the currency.

For the second time this week, a member of the FOMC causes more selling in the dollar after choosing to shed light on the U.S. currency to the public. Early this morning, the Boston Fed’s Eric Rosengren (not a current FOMC voting member) said the decline of the dollar reflected investors improved confidence with the economy and their resulting appetite for risk. While such remarks are no more than a stating of the obvious as far the current FX market dynamics, they constitute an overt green light to sell the currency, especially when uttered by policymakers of the interest-rate setting body of the U.S.

On Monday, Chairman Bernanke may have intended to support the dollar when he raised the importance of timely exit strategy, but the way he went about it had the opposite effect. Bernanke said adopting a fiscal exit strategy “is critically important in order to maintain confidence in our economy and confidence in our currency”. So far, the Fed has made it clear it would not be exiting its monetary policy strategy any time soon (aside from talk about reverse repos). Bernanke’s speech placed the onus on the Treasury as far as fiscal policy is concerned.

And since fiscal tightening by the U.S. Treasury is not expected any time soon, traders easily conclude that the lack of any exit strategy (fiscal or monetary) will empower them to retest last year’s all time lows in the greenback.

The once mighty greenback continues to lose ground and respect. Things are getting so bad that if you dropped a dollar in a sandbox a cat would bury it.

The dollar is now a punch line as commodities continue to find comfort at higher ranges. Record budget deficits and no signs that the Fed is about to reverse course on its accommodative policies has oil prices finding love and happiness at these higher ranges. Not even OPEC’s declaration that oil prices above $80 are a concern has the commodity bulls confidence waning. Right now unless they are thwarted by central bank intervention or signs of an exit strategy, commodity bulls will continue to test the upper limits and threaten the economic recovery.

In fact in Fridays New York Times 09/23/09 Paul Krugman is putting the blame not on record spending and deficits but on the Chinese. Krugman writes, “Senior monetary officials usually talk in code. So when Ben Bernanke, the Federal Reserve chairman, spoke recently about Asia, international imbalances and the financial crisis, he didn’t specifically criticize China’s outrageous currency policy.” “But he didn’t have to: everyone got the subtext. China’s bad behavior is posing a growing threat to the rest of the world economy. The only question now is what the world - and, in particular, the United States - will do about it.” Krugman says, “The value of China’s currency, unlike, say, the value of the British pound, isn’t determined by supply and demand. Instead, Chinese authorities enforced that target by buying or selling their currency in the foreign exchange market - a policy made possible by restrictions on the ability of private investors to move their money either into or out of the country.”

Krugman continues, “There’s nothing necessarily wrong with such a policy, especially in a still poor country whose financial system might all too easily be destabilized by volatile flows of hot money. In fact, the system served China well during the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s. The crucial question, however, is whether the target value of the yuan is reasonable. Until around 2001, you could argue that China’s overall trade position wasn’t too far out of balance. From then onward, however, the policy of keeping the yuan-dollar rate fixed came to look increasingly bizarre. First of all, the dollar slid in value, especially against the euro, so that by keeping the yuan/dollar rate fixed, Chinese officials were, in effect, devaluing their currency against everyone else’s. Meanwhile, productivity in China’s export industries soared; combined with the de facto devaluation, this made Chinese goods extremely cheap on world markets.

The result was a huge Chinese trade surplus. If supply and demand had been allowed to prevail, the value of China’s currency would have risen sharply. But Chinese authorities didn’t let it rise. They kept it down by selling vast quantities of the currency, acquiring in return an enormous hoard of foreign assets, mostly in dollars, currently worth about $2.1 trillion.

Many economists, me included, believe that China’s asset-buying spree helped inflate the housing bubble, setting the stage for the global financial crisis. But China’s insistence on keeping the yuan/dollar rate fixed, even when the dollar declines, may be doing even more harm now.

Although there has been a lot of doom saying about the falling dollar, that decline is actually both natural and desirable. America needs a weaker dollar to help reduce its trade deficit, and it’s getting that weaker dollar as nervous investors, who flocked into the presumed safety of U.S. debt at the peak of the crisis, have started putting their money to work elsewhere.

But China has been keeping its currency pegged to the dollar - which means that a country with a huge trade surplus and a rapidly recovering economy, a country whose currency should be rising in value, is in effect engineering a large devaluation instead.

And that’s a particularly bad thing to do at a time when the world economy remains deeply depressed due to inadequate overall demand. By pursuing a weak-currency policy, China is siphoning some of that inadequate demand away from other nations, which is hurting growth almost everywhere. The biggest victims, by the way, are probably workers in other poor countries. In normal times, I’d be among the first to reject claims that China is stealing other peoples’ jobs, but right now it’s the simple truth.” A must read in the Times.

Oil continues it increase even as jobless claims rise. Bloomberg News said gasoline futures retreated from a seven-week high as jobless claims rose more than forecast, indicating the labor market won’t immediately recover and demand for the motor fuel may weaken. Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose by 11,000 to 531,000 in the week ended Oct. 17, the Labor Department said today, more than the 515,000 more than forecast.

On the metals front Russia said they are selling 45 tons of gold and Dow Jones reports that Goldman Sachs Friday lowered its three-month base metals forecast but raised its 12-month view and said the metals will move higher in two stages. Right now base metals are caught in a “tug-of-war” between weak OECD country demand and strong emerging market demand but the bank expects OECD demand to rise in 2010 and that will be the catalyst for further copper gains.

Buy December crude at 7427 - stop 7300.

Buy December RBOB at 18000 - stop 17800.

Buy December heating oil at 19500 - stop 19300.

Buy December natural gas at 510 - stop 470.

Bank failures now at 106 for 2009

The number of bank failures easily broke past the No. 100 milestone on Friday night, with regulators announcing the year’s 106th closure. That’s more than four times the number that were closed in 2008, and the highest total since 1992, when 181 banks failed. Earlier on Friday evening the dubious honor of the 100th failure went to Partners Bank, of Naples, Fla., which had $65.5 million in assets, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

The 101st failure was American United Bank, of Lawrenceville, Ga., which had $111 million in assets.

The 102nd failure was another Naples, Fla., institution: Hillcrest Bank Florida, which had $83 million in assets.

The 103rd closure was Bradenton, Fla.-based Flagship National Bank, with $190 million in assets.

The 104th was Bank of Elmwood, based in Racine, Wis., which had $327.4 million in assets.

The 105th failure was Riverview Community Bank of Otsego, Minn., with $108 million in assets.

The 106th failure was First Dupage Bank in Westmont, Ill., which had $279 million in assets.

Customers of all seven banks are protected, however. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., which has insured bank deposits since the Great Depression, covers customer accounts up to $250,000. This is funded through premiums paid by member banks.

In fact, to reassure borrowers, FDIC chair Sheila Bair posted a video message to the agency’s Web site, saying “for the insured depositor, a bank failure is a non-event.”

Still, Bair cautioned that “until the healing process is complete, there will be more bank failures.”

What happens to the banks. Fort Lauderdale, Fla.-based Stonegate Bank will assume control of all Partners Bank’s $64.9 million in deposits. It will also take over Hillcrest Bank’s $84 million in deposits. The two branches of Partners Bank and six branches of Hillcrest will reopen on Monday as branches of Stonegate.

Moultrie, Ga.-based Ameris Bank will pay the FDIC a premium of 1.02% to take control of American United’s $101 million in deposits. The FDIC and Ameris Bank entered into a loss-share transaction on $92 million of American United’s assets, an agreement in which Ameris will share in the losses on the assets covered.

The single branch of American United Bank will reopen on Monday as a branch of Ameris.

Lake City, Fla.-based First Federal Bank will take over all of Flagship National Bank’s $175 million in deposits. The four branches of Flagship will reopen Monday as branches of First Federal.

Bank of Elmwood’s $273.2 million in deposits are now controlled by Tri City National Bank, based in Oak Creek, Wis. The five branches of Bank of Elmwood will reopen on Saturday as branches of Tri City.

Stillwater, Minn.-based Central Bank will take control of Riverview Community Bank’s $80 million in deposits. The FDIC and Central Bank entered into a loss-share transaction on $75 million of Riverview’s assets.

First Dupage Bank’s $254 million in deposits are now being handled by First Midwest Bank of Itasca, Ill. The FDIC and First Midwest Bank entered into a loss-share transaction on approximately $247 million of First Dupage Bank’s assets. The sole First Dupage branch will reopn Saturday as an outpost of First Midwest.

The failure of the six banks will cost the Deposit Insurance Fund an estimated $356.6 million, according to the FDIC.

Why regional banks are failing. While larger financial institutions have received aid from the federal government, smaller banks have found themselves left adrift. Like their larger counterparts, many of these banks made risky loans to individuals and real estate developers during the boom years and are now facing large numbers of defaults as the recession drags on.

Rising unemployment has made it difficult for many individuals to keep up with expenses, and businesses are feeling the crunch of consumers’ reduced spending power. As a result, regional banks are left holding loans their customers can’t repay.

23Oct

Employers optimistic, but not hiring yet

global economy, stocks, usa economics No Comments

Employers optimistic, but not hiring yet

“Cautious optimism” seems to characterize employers’ attitudes about the economy, according to a September survey by the International Foundation of Employee Benefit Plans.

Fed, Treasury Pay Curbs Mark Watershed Moment
The U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve unveiled a set of curbs and rules
for executive compensation at U.S. banks that mark a watershed moment for
government intervention in the private sector.

The Fed is proposing that it more aggressively regulate compensation
practices at U.S. American banks under its control. The central bank “is
working to ensure that compensation packages appropriately tie rewards to
longer-term performance and do not create undue risk for the firm or the
financial system,” Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday.

The policies would become part of the supervisory process, the Fed said,
noting large, complex organizations would face special “horizontal” reviews
that compare one bank’s pay practices with those of its peers.

Tags: unemployment

22Oct

Short side plays are looking prudent here.

Movers & Shakers, daily stock picks, daily stock tips, daytrades, free stock info, free stock picks, free stock tips, market analysis, market projections, short term investments, stockmarket analysis, technical analysis, trading, trading ideas, trend No Comments

Short side plays are looking prudent here.

Wednesday 09/21/09 was the Second Key Market reversal day in 2 months and unfortunately this may be an important test.
This test is for the markets health and for those with a stake in the market.
the last market Key Reversal, it was 9/23 prior to that it was 8/28.
The current market rally has been occurring with declining volume with negative momentum divergences. Its clear that the market continues to be driven by the declining US dollar as it continues to hit new lows.

Strong indications pointing to continued selling potential in Thursdays trading session.
From the double top failed pattern we witnessed on the Dow Transports the DJ20 and the negative divergences from the former highs. Time frame plays a huge role here.
The 50DMA may be an important point of support to watch here.
If we fail the 50 DMA the drain could open fast. Keep your fingers crossed that everyone doesn’t try to head for the exits all at the same time.

Stockshakers opened Put positions on BIDU & EBAY Wednesday.
INTC and CSCO may also test the strength of the Tech traders conviction here.
AAPL looks solid.
The US Dollar will continue to be the star attraction along with the ever inching up Energy sector and crude.

The ultimate budget busters for the US Economy while so many struggle to cope, Stockshakers hops this is a very shallow retracement and not the beginning of the inflationary fallout so many have feared.
The appearance of a grey and bleak backdrop similar to the 1970’s US recessionary cycle would be a bad addition to the Biggest recession in the history of the globe.

Look for the media to begin reporting the turn around feel good stories to try to counter the obvious.

Tags: options, puts, retracement, sall-off, trading, turn around, turnaround

16Oct

Federal deficit hits record-high $1.42 trillion

breaking market news, breaking news, breaking stock market news, breaking stock news, breaking wall street news, usa economics No Comments

Federal deficit hits record-high $1.42 trillion, expected total $9.1 trillion over next decade

The federal budget deficit has surged to an all-time high of $1.42 trillion as the recession caused tax revenues to plunge while the government was spending massive amounts to stabilize the financial system and jump-start the economy.

Tags: Federal deficit, Federal deficit hits record-high $1.42 trillion

About StockSHAKERS:

Category:

Archives:

Blogroll:

Meta:

GDP rises at an annual rate of 3.5 percent in the third quarter

VIX is rising, McClellan Oscillator is indicating oversold levels…Oh and GDP 8:30AM

GDP Thursday 10/29/09 8:30AM EST

BIDU Nov 2009 400.0000 call sold 12:35 PM

BIDU Nov 2009 400.0000 call

Trading the BIDU Call Options today

Let the whipsaw begin

Dow Futures are pointed just slightly up on Sunday night 10/25/09

Employers optimistic, but not hiring yet

Short side plays are looking prudent here.

Federal deficit hits record-high $1.42 trillion

Recent Posts

Recent Comments

About StockSHAKERS:

Category:

Archives:

Blogroll:

Meta:

BIDU Nov 2009 400.0000 call

Recent Posts

Recent Comments

Recent Posts