StockSHAKERS

Overall volume in the index market was light Monday, but the CBOE Volatility Index (.VIX) saw a bit more volume than usual. The volatility index edged up .40 to 22.14 in cautious trading ahead of an interest rate announcement from the Federal Reserve tomorrow afternoon.
In VIX options, the top trades of the day included a combination where an investor apparently bought 13,230 October 30 calls at $3.30 and sold 13,230 October 30 puts at $4.10.
This combo creates a bearish position similar to holding a short position in VIX futures. About 184,000 VIX calls and 111,000 VIX puts traded total, or nearly double the recent average daily volume.

Tags: Federal Reserve announcement, rate change, VIX Index Trading

06Aug

Stockshakers Market outlook 080610

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The market is waiting for an event, what event it is waiting for is a guess at best. Most of the indexes are sitting here very boring and waiting for the employment numbers. Gold may take off if they are bad. Oil is taking a breather but still in an uptrend moboing up to 84.

US Dollar lower lows. When the dollar creates the chart pattern it is setting up for here it typically bounces, Which also general signals market selling.

The Euro may rally at that point as well.

Chemicals are doing well right now DD is in a mobo pattern up.

KWR,WHX, MVO, MU, RIMM, AIG, KFT, CROX, & CB look interesting here

OIL $84.00+ is the next upside target. Support is $79.20. Crude Oil 82.28 +0.08 +0.10%

LVS & WYNN & ISLE for a 10% Move if it can breakout here based on the gambling in Macau http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703545604575406520634752494.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

These guys may sell off for a moment but watch for them to reverse back to the upside.

Top Industries

Industry Rank as per Zacks

Rank Industry

1 AUTO -DOMESTIC (2) F & PCAR

1 ELECT CONSTUCTION (1) HUB.B

3 OIL-US RYLTY TR (2) WHX & MVO

3 SEMI-PRO LOGIC DEV(2) XLNX & ALTR

5 SEMI-MEMORY (3) SNDK & MU & STEC

Gapping up right now AGO,CROX,HANS,PKI,RMBS (Rumors of a potential takeover brewing)

buying CSCO below $25 — The game changer in the i-Pad space may be The Cisco Cius

Tags: Stockshakers Market outlook 080610

29Jul

Economists see tepid recovery deep into 2011

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Economists see tepid recovery deep into 2011
The U.S. economic recovery will remain slow deep into next year, held back by shoppers reluctant to spend and employers hesitant to hire, according to an Associated Press survey of leading economists.

The latest quarterly AP Economy Survey shows economists have turned gloomier in the past three months. They foresee weaker growth and higher unemployment than they did before. As a result, the economists think the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates near zero until at least next spring.

Yet despite their expectation of slower growth, a majority of the 42 economists surveyed believe the recovery remains on track, raising hopes that the economy can avoid falling back into a “double-dip” recession.

The AP survey compiles forecasts of leading private, corporate and academic economists on a range of indicators, including employment, consumer spending and inflation. Among their forecasts:

•Economic growth the rest of this year and early next year will weaken, to less than 3 percent. From January through May, the economy grew at roughly a 3.5 percent pace.
•The unemployment rate will be no lower at the end of the year than it is now — 9.5 percent. A majority think it will be 2015 or later before the rate falls to a historically normal 5 percent.
•State budget shortfalls pose a “significant” or “severe” risk to the national economy. The loss of tax revenue has forced state and local governments to cut services and lay off workers.
The weak economy leaves Democrats and Republicans on Capitol Hill vulnerable as they head into the November midterm elections. Democrats, who now control both chambers, have the most to lose. The gloomier outlook is also a liability for President Barack Obama.

The economists have turned more pessimistic since the recovery hit turbulence in May. Europe’s debt crisis sent tremors through Wall Street, causing stocks to tumble and raising doubts about the durability of the rebound.
Since then, businesses have been slow to step up hiring. Americans’ confidence in the economy has declined, leading shoppers to reduce spending. And the housing market has weakened further with the end of a homebuyer tax credit that had buoyed sales earlier this year.

Consumers aren’t leading this rebound, as they usually do, despite ultra-low borrowing costs. Their spending growth will weaken in the second half of this year and strengthen only slightly next year, a majority of economists said. They think shoppers’ reluctance to spend more money poses a “significant” or “severe” risk to the recovery.

“It seems like we hit an air pocket in consumer spending,” said survey participant Richard DeKaser, president of Woodley Park Research.

Kasey Doshier, a graphic designer in Chicago, said the recession taught her to rein in her spending. The key moment came early last year, when her employer cut her pay 15 percent to avoid layoffs.

“I just lived paycheck to paycheck and had a good time,” said Doshier, 32. “It’s kind of scary to think that I am a paycheck away from being homeless.”

Doshier’s pay has been reinstated, but she’s still watching her money. Dinner and drinks with friends are gone. Now she goes to free street festivals and the city pool. She explores Chicago neighborhoods by taking her dog on long “adventure walks.”

The tight job market, scant pay raises and drooping home values are forcing others, too, to spend less and save more. Americans saved 4.2 percent of their disposable income last year. That was the highest level since 1998. Economists expect roughly the same level of saving this year and next.

That’s why growth of less than 3 percent is forecast into 2011. And weak growth helps explain why unemployment is likely to stay high. It takes about 3 percent growth just to create enough jobs to keep pace with the population increase.

Growth would have to equal 5 percent for a full year to drive the unemployment rate down by 1 percentage point. Neither the economists in the AP survey nor the Obama administration expects that to happen.

The Fed’s outlook has turned bleaker, too. It’s why Chairman Ben Bernanke and his colleagues are weighing new steps to invigorate the economy if the recovery shows signs of backsliding. They are also expected to hold interest rates at record lows longer than economists thought three months ago.

A survey the Fed released Wednesday showed the economy facing a bumpy path back to health. The pace of economic activity remained modest in most of the country.

Most economists surveyed said the Fed would being raising short-term rates no sooner than next spring. In the last survey, most had thought it could happen as soon as late this year.
At the same time, state budget shortfalls have emerged as a major threat in the economists’ view. State and local governments cut their spending in the first three months of this year at a 3.8 percent pace. That was the biggest cutback since the second quarter of 1981, just before the economy entered a severe recession.

When states and localities tighten spending by trimming services and jobs, the cutbacks ripple through the broader economy, causing individuals to spend less, too. The drop in state and local government spending shaved about half a percentage point off the U.S. gross domestic product in the first three months of this year.

Nearly two-thirds of the economists view the states’ budget crises as a significant or severe threat to the rebound.

Despite such risks, 55 percent of the economists described the recovery as “on track” as of the middle of the year. The rest said it was “faltering.”

“There’s a risk that the loss of momentum will snowball and feed on itself, but I think in the end the recovery will stay on track,” predicted another survey participant, James O’Sullivan, global chief economist at MF Global.

Tags: Economists see tepid recovery deep into 2011

15Jul

Trading session Thursday 071510

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OREX - Sell orders triggered today at $6.00 Per Share. @ 1:36PM EST
Very healthy profits for Stockshakers.

Today the financial reform Bill passes today and now the markets have some new data to digest we will see the initial reaction during Fridays trading session. Equity index Futures are currently flat.

Tags: OREX sell orders triggered

14Jul

Stockshakers are trading and making money in this market — DGIT, OREX, CRUS

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Stockshakers have been making money trading DGIT for the last year and the return on just the equity has been 91%.

Factor in the option trades during the ebb and flow of the market cycles and the gains really take your breath away.
Currently the trades have been long trades.
CRUS has been a star for us as well.
OREX has been up 42% for us since 07/07/10 up 11% on Wednesday alone.

The low volume market grind we are seeing now is typical of a market building up momentum to try to challenge the resistance and break back to the upside.
This time last year the markets gathered up a head of steam that may have been fueled by short covering however we did rally and we may be setting the table for the next leg up.

Keep some powder dry as this is earnings season and there are more reasons for the market to cut the legs from under any momentum at any minute.
We are still seeking the catalyst that can propel the market out of the current trading range.
BP has capped the spill…gee took longer than enough!

Where is the Motivation for the market to rally and money to flow in here?

Tags: CRUS, DGIT, OREX

30Jun

Market outlook 06/30/10 (Outlook for Thursday 07/01/10) Hold on tight we may be in for a little turbulence

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The market started to bounce early today, giving hope that the 1040 level would hold on the S&P 500. However, it rolled over again late in the day and barreled through a key swing point. Confirming the head-and-shoulders reversal pattern.
panic may set in tomorrow, one must keep this latest market correction in perspective. Typically, you see at least a 38.2% retracement of the initial move off a major bottom like the one in March of 2009. Often, there is a 50% retracement or more. And we are just now getting close to a natural 38.2% retracement. Which also happens to correspond with a support level around 1010.
The S&P 500 current daily chart pattern is a classic textboox head n shoulders reversal starting in Nov. 2009.
A 50% retracement would take the S&P 500 to around 950, which also corresponds to another line of horizontal support. This is also a full 1 to 1 projection of the initial move down from the market top in April. So we are looking at a market that will at least reach 1010 and there is a good chance it will go to 950. (Each S&P point would equal @ 10 Dow points.) we are at 1030 so the drop on the DOW could be @ 800 points!

SPY –Short: Watch the jobless claims in the morning and check the futures afterwards. Without a big positive number, this market is likely to drop another few percent quickly here. Our target short entry is tomorrow morning with a target cover price of 960. Around 1010 if we see a major news item that turns the market around. buying put options on the SPY and SDS given this downdraft maybe swift.

Current Dow futures are pointed down and global contagion has ensued.
Dow 9668.00 -48.00 -0.49%

Tags: Market outlook 06/30/10 (Outlook for Thursday 07/01/10) Hold on tight we may be in for a little turbulence

30Jun

Head and shoulders top confirmed today

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The markets have really fallen apart in a hurry and the head and
shoulders top I’ve been discussing was confirmed in the Nasdaq today
with a nearly 4% plunge on increasing volume. That’s a distribution
day and an indication that institutions are unloading positions. I
really thought that the market would make a significant move after the
July 4th weekend, but the markets move as they choose to move.
Expect more pain if you are long this market.
We may see some real selling, brace yourself but lets hope for a bounce.
Expect some Global contaigion

Tags: Head and shoulders top confirmed today

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Rally?

Market Remains in Weekly Chart Head & Shoulders pattern

VIX Index Trading up in todays trading session