Markets are flashing a sell signal and this is only the third one since the market bottom in March for the market indexes.
This could be a dip or the correction we have been seeing in the technicals.
September can be a historically challenging month. There have been corrections 2000 there was a strong correction.
The Weekly picture points to the daily lows getting taken out by price to verify the technical indication.
Commodities should retreat as the US Dollar rises if this is a correction that would have any lasting power.
Banking has already seen some market selling last week.
First targets is the 50 SMA watch the financials in Mondays session as an indicator of confirmation.
Oil will see resistance at Monday’s high of $75. A breech of $71.45 could send it into the upper $60 range fairly quickly.
Shanghai Composite ends morning down 5.4%, weighed by concerns of slowing bank lending
Many felt the US Fed administration kept the market propped up during the bulk of 2009 since march, now we may see the next card in the deck played.
Insider Trading and Investor Sentiment Signaling U.S. Stock Market Top
Insider Selling in August Soars to 30.6 Times Insider Buying, Highest Level Since TrimTabs Began Tracking in 2004. NYSE Short Interest Plunges 10.3%, While Margin Debt Spikes 5.9%
TrimTabs Investment Research reported that selling by corporate insiders in August has surged to $6.1 billion, the highest amount since May 2008. The ratio of insider selling to insider buying hit 30.6, the highest level since TrimTabs began tracking the data in 2004.
“The best-informed market participants are sending a clear signal that the party on Wall Street is going to end soon,” said Charles Biderman, CEO of TrimTabs.
TrimTabs’ data on insider transactions is based on daily filings of Form 4, which corporate officers, directors, and major holders are required to file with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
In a research note, TrimTabs explained that insider activity is not the only sign the rally is about to end. The TrimTabs Demand Index, which tracks 18 fund flow and sentiment indicators, has turned very bearish for the first time since March.
For example, short interest on NYSE stocks plummeted by 10.3% in the second half of July and margin debt on all US listed stocks spiked 5.9% in July, while 51.6% of advisors surveyed by Investors Intelligence are bullish, the highest level since December 2007.
“When corporate insiders are bailing, the shorts are covering and investors are borrowing to buy, it generally pays to be a seller rather than a buyer of stock,” said Biderman.
TrimTabs also reports that the actions of U.S. public companies have been bearish. In the past four months, companies have been net sellers of a record $105.2 billion in shares.
“Investors who think the U.S. economy is recovering are going to get a big shock this fall,” said Biderman. “Companies and corporate insiders are signaling that the economy is in much worse shape than conventional wisdom believes.”
TrimTabs Investment Research is the only independent research service that publishes detailed daily coverage of U.S. stock market liquidity–including mutual fund flows and exchange-traded fund flows–as well as weekly withheld income and employment tax collections.
Founded by Charles Biderman, TrimTabs has provided institutional investors with trading strategies since 1990.
U.S. Unemployment – Epic Fail
The figure of 16% quoted here is nothing more than the Bureau of Labor Statistics “U-6″ measure of unemployment.
U-6 Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers.
Here is a chart showing the ‘official’ U3 measure of unemployment and the U6 alternate measure. The chart also includes the unofficial unemployment rate projection done by John Williams of Shadowstats.com.
It appears that Dennis wanted to take this occasion to say that things were SO bad that there is little use in applying any sort of stimulus to the public, although there is plenty of stimulus required for the banks.
Real US unemployment rate at 16 pct: Fed official
The real US unemployment rate is 16 percent if persons who have dropped out of the labor pool and those working less than they would like are counted, a Federal Reserve official said Wednesday.
“If one considers the people who would like a job but have stopped looking — so-called discouraged workers — and those who are working
fewer hours than they want, the unemployment rate would move from the official 9.4 percent to 16 percent, said Atlanta Fed chief Dennis Lockhart.
He underscored that he was expressing his own views, which did “do not necessarily reflect those of my colleagues on the Federal Open Market Committee,” the policy-setting body of the central bank.
Lockhart pointed out in a speech to a chamber of commerce in Chattanooga, Tennessee that those two categories of people are not taken into account in the Labor Department’s monthly report on the unemployment rate. The official July jobless rate was 9.4 percent.
Lockhart, who heads the Atlanta, Georgia, division of the Fed, is the first central bank official to acknowledge the depth of unemployment amid the worst US recession since the Great Depression.
Lockhart said the US economy was improving but “still fragile,” and the beginning stages of a sluggish recovery were underway.
“My forecast for a slow recovery implies a protracted period of high unemployment,” he said, adding that it would be difficult to stimulate jobs through additional public spending.
“Further fiscal stimulus has been mentioned, but the full effects of the first stimulus package are not yet clear, and the concern over adding to the federal deficit and the resulting national debt is warranted,” he said.
President Barack Obama’s administration has resisted calls for more public spending, arguing that the 787-billion-dollar stimulus passed in February needs time to work its way through the economy.
Lockhart noted that construction and manufacturing had been particularly hard hit in the recession that began in December 2007 and predicted some jobs were gone for good.
Prior to the recession, he said, construction and manufacturing combined accounted for slightly more than 15 percent of employment. But
during the recession, their job losses made up more than 40 percent of all US job losses.
“In my view, it is unlikely that we will see a return of jobs lost in certain sectors, such as manufacturing,” he said.
“In a similar vein, the recession has been so deep in construction that a reallocation of workers is likely to happen — even if not permanent.”
Payroll employment has fallen by 6.7 million since the recession began.
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