• 04Mar

    House passes tax breaks for new hires
    Legislation passes 217-201; many argue measure won’t create many jobs
    Despite doubts among many lawmakers that it’ll create many jobs, the House on Thursday passed legislation giving companies that hire the jobless a temporary payroll tax break.

    The measure passed 217-201 on a mostly party-line vote. The bill also extends federal highway programs through the end of the year.

    Some Democrats feel the approximately $35 billion jobs bill is too puny, while others say the tax cut for new hires won’t generate many new jobs. However, the pressure is on to address jobs and deliver a badly needed win for President Barack Obama and a Democratic Party struggling in opinion polls and facing major losses in the upcoming midterm elections. Further jobs measures are promised.

    “If that’s the only thing that I can vote on … I’ll vote for it, obviously,” said Rep. Bill Pascrell, D-N.J. “We’ve got to get something moving. We’ve got to get something done.”

    “It’s really not a jobs bill,” said Rep. Barbara Lee, D-Calif. “It’s one small piece.” Lee said she instead wants money in the legislation for job training and youth summer jobs.

    The House had passed a much larger measure in December that contained almost $50 billion in infrastructure funding, $50 billion in help for cash-starved state governments, and a six-month extension of jobless aid. That bill conspicuously left out the proposals to award tax credits for hiring new workers. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was among those skeptical of that idea.

    The Senate responded last week with the far smaller measure that the House is reluctantly accepting. The House amended the measure Thursday to conform with so-called pay-as-you-go budget rules that have become an article of faith among moderate Democrats. The rules require future spending increases or tax cuts to be paid for with either cuts to other programs or equivalent tax increases.

    The minor tweak means that the notoriously balky Senate would have to act again before Obama could sign the bill into law.

    The $35 billion bill — blending $15 billion in tax cuts and subsidies for infrastructure bonds issued by local governments with the $20 billion in transportation money — is far smaller than the massive economic stimulus bill enacted a year ago.

    The jobs bill has been a source of tension between House and Senate Democrats.

    “It’s ridiculous that it’s taken so long for the Senate to overcome indifference and obstruction to finally send a bill back to the House which represents just a fraction of what we need to do to help the unemployed,” said House Appropriations Committee Chairman David Obey, D-Wis. “But better late than never, and better something than nothing.”

    Across the Capitol, the Senate is debating a far more costly measure to clean up a lot of unfinished business from last year. The $100 billion-plus bill would extend unemployment assistance, revive a bevy of expired tax breaks, help states with soaring Medicaid costs and prevent doctors from having to absorb big cuts in Medicare payments. The popular initiatives are traditionally extended on a bipartisan basis for brief periods of time, which hides their long-term costs.

    The Senate plans to act on the jobs bill after wrapping up the unfinished-business bill, which means it probably won’t be sent to Obama until next week.

    The jobs bill contains two major provisions. First, it would exempt businesses hiring the unemployed from the 6.2 percent Social Security payroll tax through December and give them an additional $1,000 credit if new workers stay on the job a full year. The Social Security trust fund would be reimbursed for the lost revenue.

    Second, it would extend highway and mass transit programs through the end of the year and pump in $20 billion in time for the spring construction season. The money would make up for lower-than-expected gasoline tax revenues.

    Small businesses would continue to be able to write off equipment purchases as a business expense. Much of the bill is financed by cracking down on offshore tax havens.

    Several lawmakers in both parties criticized the payroll tax break, saying that it wouldn’t do much to create jobs and that the bulk of it would go to employers for new hires that would be made anyway.

     

    “It simply encourages conduct that would occur anyway,” said Lloyd Doggett, D-Texas.

    Rep. Steve LaTourette, R-Ohio, said he asked businessmen at town meetings in his Rust Belt district whether they would hire people based on the payroll tax holiday. “Nobody raised their hands,” LaTourette said. “This is not going to create one job.”

    “It’s an insipid, weak piece of legislation,” said Jim McDermott, D-Wash.

    “It’s not that good, but it’s better than nothing,” said Jim McGovern, D-Mass. “And we’re going to have to do more. But the bill that I would have liked to have seen pass can’t pass the United States Senate.”

    Economist Mark Zandi of Moody’s Economy.com said the new hiring tax credit could spur creation of about 250,000 new jobs. The economy has shed 8.4 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007.

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  • 03Mar

    Fidelity sets performance fee for Anthony Bolton trust

    The Anthony Bolton-led Fidelity China Special Situations PLC will carry a performance fee equal to 15% of any increase in its NAV over MSCI China Index, subject to a hurdle rate of 2%.
    But Fidelity has confirmed that if the trust underperforms the hurdle rate in any year, this shortfall must be made good before any further performance fee becomes payable.
    The maximum performance fee payable in any year will be equal to 1.5% of NAV. The trust will also carry an annual charge of 1.5% of total net assets.
    As previously reported, Fidelity is targeting an initial capital raising of £630m before the public offer closes on the trust on 5 April.
    Investors will be able to apply for shares from 26 February. Shares in the company will be issued at £1 and made available through a public offer for subscription in the UK and a placing in certain overseas jurisdictions.

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  • 03Mar

    More on Bolton and the Fund…
    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/tag/fidelity/

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  • 03Mar

    Stockshakers opinion is that Bolton has proven to be one of the brightest minds i nthe investing world. The real test is now starting.
    Stockshakers wish Mr. Bolton the best in this journey and will follow along for the ride.
    The Fund has started the funding process in London as of February 26th.
    The U.S. access is YTBD.
    Stockshakers will keep you updated as more information becomes available.
    For more information on the fund: https://www.fidelity.co.uk/investor/research-funds/in-focus/china-special-situations/gateway.page

    Fidelity China Special Situations PLC

    Important notice Before accessing the content on this please read the terms and conditions below.
    Investors should not purchase any shares referred to in this web content except on the basis of information contained in the Prospectus which is available on our website.

    You are about to access the Fidelity China Special Situations PLC web pages for UK investors.

    Access to this site may be restricted by local law or regulation. You should not continue to access this area until you have satisfied yourself as to the full observance of any relevant laws and regulatory requirements. Please note in particular that the information on this site does not constitute an offer to sell in any country in which this type of offer is unlawful or in which a person making this offer does not hold the necessary authorisation to do so.

    You should not access this site if you are a US Person (as defined in Regulation S under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”)). The content within the web site is not registered under the Securities Act and this product may not be sold in the United States or to, or for the account or benefit of, U.S. Persons.

    You should also not access this site if you are in Hong Kong. The information on this site has not been reviewed by any regulatory authority in Hong Kong. You are advised to exercise caution in relation to the offer. If you are in any doubt about any of the information in the site, you should obtain independent professional advice.

    Fidelity China Special Situations PLC is not registered with the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority as a foreign collective investment scheme. Therefore you should not access this website if you are in Switzerland unless you are a Qualified Investor (as defined in the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act 2006 and its implementing ordinance).

    The shares in Fidelity China Special Situations PLC are not, and will not be offered in the Netherlands, unless the offer is made only to qualified investors within the meaning of the Dutch Financial Markets Supervision Act. Neither Fidelity China Special Situations PLC nor any offer or of its shares requires a licence with respect to the offering or is supervised by the Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets.

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  • 23Feb

    Stockshakers are short this market.

    Specifically the S&P 500 (SPY) The Close from the session Tuesday 02/23/10 indicates a violation of the current trend.
    From March of 2009 until the start of 2010 the trend was generally up.

    Early 2010 saw some sharp selling. The last few weeks has been an up trend attempted recovery.

    However at the 50 Day MA we have failed to hold support.
    The early indications are a negative character change for the market.

    Stockshakers are short this market and specifically we are short the SPY from the current level at 109.81 on the daily chart hourly indicates 109.79. The next test will be at the 108 level.
    Uptrend looks to be ending at least for the near term.

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  • 21Feb

    What you need to know about credit card reform
     The new credit card regulations are finally here. Starting Monday, Feb. 22, 2010, banks will need to abide a spate of new rules on terms and disclosures. The idea behind the landmark law was to prevent banks from using unfair practices that dig borrowers deeper into debt.
    The new credit card law is finally here. Starting Monday, banks will need to abide by new regulations on terms and disclosures. The idea behind the landmark law was to prevent banks from using practices that often dug borrowers deeper into debt.
    A look at how the credit card law affects key aspects of your account.

    INTEREST RATES

    THEN: Banks could raise the interest rate on an account at any time, including the rate on an existing balances, even if you weren’t late on payments.

    NOW: The rate cannot be raised in the first year after an account is opened unless an introductory rate has come to an end. After that, cardholders must be notified 45 days in advance of any rate change.

    For existing balances, rates can’t be raised unless the account is at least 60 days past due. If payments are made on time for six consecutive months, the original rate must be restored.

    There’s still no cap on rates.

    DISCLOSURES

    THEN: The fine print on cardholder agreements was often difficult to understand. Rates, fees and penalties for other services such as cash advances, for example, could be hard to find. The impact of the interest rate on paying down a balance was hard to compute.

    NOW: Cardholders will see how many months it will take to pay off a balance if only minimum payments are made. Statements will also indicate how much needs to be paid each month to pay off a balance within three years.

    SERVICE FEES

    THEN: Banks could charge as much as they wanted. They could assess annual fees, activation fees and other fees. This was mostly a problem for subprime cards marketed to those with poor credit scores. One popular card, for example, the Premier Bankcard, charged $256 in first-year fees for a $250 credit line.

    NOW: Service fees, such as activation and annual fees, will be capped at 25 percent of the credit limit during the first year of use. After that, there is no cap.

    GRACE PERIODS

    THEN: Some card companies sent out statements not long before payments were due, and sometimes shifted payment due dates from month to month, meaning that payments would not always have enough time to arrive and get processed before being deemed late. As a result, some cardholders ended up getting charged interest or late fees even when they thought they were sending in payments on time.

    NOW: The law requires that due dates remain consistent. Statements must be sent out 21 days before the payment due date, and finance charges and fees cannot be applied before that period is up. In practice, about half of card issuers have extended grace periods to as long as 25 days.

    OVER-THE-LIMIT FEES

    THEN: Banks set credit limits, then routinely allowed charges to exceed those limits. When that happened, though, the customer was charged an over-the-limit fee as high as $39. These fees were often triggered by interest charges or late-payment fees that pushed a balance over the credit limit. What’s more, multiple over-the-limit fees could get charged in a single billing cycle if the balance was paid down and another charge pushed the balance back over the limit.

    NOW: The cardholder must specifically agree to permit transactions that exceed the credit limit. Only then can over-the-limit fees be charged. But the fees can’t be triggered by other fees or interest charges. Only one over-the-limit fee may be imposed during a billing cycle. No over-the-limit fees may be charged unless the cardholder has specifically agreed to permit transactions exceeding their authorized credit limit. These fees can no longer be triggered by other fees or interest charges imposed by the card issuer, and only one such fee may be imposed during a billing cycle.

    In practice, several of the largest card companies have dropped these fees. Some banks are using pop-up boxes on their Web sites or other methods to obtain consumer authorization.

    UNIVERSAL DEFAULT

    THEN: If you made a late payment on one credit card or loan, or even late payments for obligations like utility bills, that could trigger interest rate hikes on other credit card accounts.

    NOW: Card companies cannot raise interest rates on existing credit card balances. Interest rates can’t rise during the first year an account is open, unless the original agreement spelled out a promotional rate for a limited time.

    Consumers with older accounts must be informed of any interest rate increase on new charges at least 45 days in advance. They must also be given a chance to opt out of the hike by canceling the account and paying down the balance at the old interest rate. If an interest rate is increased, the card company must review the account once every six months to assess whether the rate should be dropped.

    STUDENTS

    THEN: Students arriving on college campuses often confronted a gantlet of credit card marketers handing out T-shirts, pizza and other gifts in exchange for filling out card applications. Credit cards were frequently handed out without checking the applicant’s income sources. In 2008, 84 percent of undergraduates had at least one credit card. Average balances topped $3,100.

    NOW: Credit cards may no longer be issued to anyone under age 21, unless the applicant has a co-signer, or can show independent means to repay the debt. Colleges must disclose any marketing deals they make with credit card companies. Banks are not allowed to hand out gifts on or near campuses or at college-related events.

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  • 21Feb

    Fidelity targets 630 mln stg for Bolton China fund

    Fund firm Fidelity International said on Tuesday it plans to raise about 630 million pounds ($982 million) in an initial fund raising for the new China fund to be run by its investment figurehead Anthony Bolton.

    The figure tallies with industry expectations for the fund, which Bolton has said would seek to avoid capacity issues by limiting fund raising.

    Bolton surprised the industry and colleagues alike when he announced he would put off retirement for a period to run a Chinese equity fund. He will move to Hong Kong next month for at least two years. [ID:nGEE5AP13R]

    The company said in a statement it would launch the closed-ended investment company, Fidelity China Special Situations PLC, with an application to list on the main market of the London Stock Exchange.

    Shares in the fund will be issued at 1 pound each and made available through a public offer for subscription in the UK and a placing in certain overseas jurisdictions, it said.

    The launch coincides with a troubled period for Fidelity’s Hong Kong operations. Late last month, it suspended two portfolio managers, Kevin Chang and Wilson Wong, over a breach of the company’s code of ethics. [ID:nTOE60P0B7]

    The offer will open on Feb. 26 and close on April 5.

    Some commentators have said Bolton’s move comes at a time when China is filling a speculative bubble and is vulnerable to a sharp correction.

    In the statement on Tuesday, he played down the risk.

    “As for a bubble, I think it is much too soon to be talking in these terms. The Chinese market began its recent rise in November 2008 and, in my experience, bubbles take several years to develop, not a little over one,” he said. ($1=.6415 Pound)

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  • 17Feb

    Federal Deficit At $430.7B Through January
    The federal deficit through the first four months of the budget year is running
    at a record-breaking pace even though the deficit in January was slightly
    smaller than expected.

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  • 16Feb

    Beijing Sells  $34.2 Billion Treasuries In December As Japan Becomes Largest Official Holder Of US Debt

    Gradually we are getting confirmation that Chinese “posturing” about offloading US debt is all too real. The most recent TIC data confirmed the Treasury’s greatest nightmare: China is now dumping US bonds. In December China sold $34.2 billion of debt ($38.8 billion in Bills sold offset by $4.6 billion in Bonds purchased), lowering its total holdings $755.4 billion, the lowest since February 2009, and for the first time in many years relinquishing the top US debt holder spot to Japan, which bought $11.5 billion  mostly in Bonds, selling $1.4 billion Bills bringing its total to $768.8 billion. Also, very oddly, the surge in UK holding continues, providing yet another clue as to the identity if the “direct bidder” - as we first assumed, these are merely UK centers transacting primarily on behalf of China as well as hedge funds, which are accumulating US debt under the radar. UK holdings increased from $230.7 billion to $302.5 billion in December: a stunning $70 billion increase in a two month span. Yet, with the identity of the UK-based buyers a secret, it really could be anyone… Anyone with very deep pockets.

    We will go through the TIC data in much more detail later; for now here is the official press release.
    February 16, 2010
    tg548
    TREASURY INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL DATA FOR DECEMBER
    WASHINGTON – The U.S. Department of the Treasury today released Treasury International Capital (TIC) data for December 2009. The next release, which will report on data for January 2010, is scheduled for March 15, 2010.
    Net foreign purchases of long-term securities were $63.3 billion.
    Net foreign purchases of long-term U.S. securities were $82.2 billion. Of this, net purchases by private foreign investors were $62.6 billion, and net purchases by foreign official institutions were $19.6 billion.
    U.S. residents purchased a net $18.9 billion of long-term foreign securities.
    Net foreign acquisition of long-term securities, taking into account adjustments, is estimated to have been $50.9 billion.
    Foreign holdings of dollar-denominated short-term U.S. securities, including Treasury bills, and other custody liabilities decreased $67.7 billion. Foreign holdings of Treasury bills decreased $53.0 billion.
    Banks’ own net dollar-denominated liabilities to foreign residents increased $77.7 billion.
    Monthly net TIC flows were $60.9 billion. Of this, net foreign private flows were $82.0 billion, and net foreign official flows were negative $21.1 billion.

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  • 16Feb

     

    Fund manage Anthony Bolton last week launched a China fund

    An eminent British fund manager, Anthony Bolton, last week launched a fund aimed at putting $1bn into Chinese stocks. He has left retirement for the purpose: China, he explained, is in an “investment sweet spot”, with incomes per head rising and consumption accelerating.

    Doubtless, Mr Bolton knows what he is doing. But less experienced hands should beware of an implicit fallacy. The long run evidence shows there is no correlation between economic growth and investment returns.

    If that sounds counter-intuitive, remember it is not the opportunity that matters, but the price attached to it. As Adam Smith put it more than two centuries ago, “the chance of gain is by every man more or less overvalued”.

    That is, we tend to pay more for growth than it is worth. That applies both to growth stocks and growth economies. And I suspect  though it is harder to prove that it also applies to investment by corporations.

    The latest Credit Suisse annual study from the academic trio of Dimson, Marsh and Staunton (DMS) gives us 110 years of evidence on this. Among 19 countries covered, the long run correlation between real growth in gross domestic product and real equity returns is in fact slightly negative. The country with the lowest growth, South Africa, had the second highest average equity returns. Italy, with half the growth rate, produced nearly four times the returns.

    As for emerging economies, live indices have been around only since the late 1980s. But the study backdates them to 1975, since when emerging markets have returned 1 per cent less per annum on average than developed markets.

    But everything depends on the starting date. Since the indices went live, emerging markets have outperformed by 1 per cent. In the past decade they have outperformed by 10 per cent. This looks suspiciously like an emerging fad, prompted by the existence of the indices themselves. In the last decade, we have had Goldman Sachs’ doctrine of the supremacy of the Brics Brazil, Russia, India and China. It is not impossible that all four will achieve developed market status, but it would certainly be unusual. The DMS study simulates emerging and developed markets since 1900, based on per capita GDP.

    In that time, five of 38 countries graduated from emerging to developed status, among them Greece and Portugal. Two more, Argentina and Chile, slipped from developed to emerging.

    In the past 30 years, it gets worse. Besides Greece and Portugal, only two countries Israel and South Korea moved up a grade. Many more were downgraded from emerging to so called “frontier” status.

    This is a handy reminder of the futility of long range forecasting. That said, how to explain the underwhelming performance of emerging equities, besides a simple propensity to overpay for growth?

    One strong possibility is that stock markets fail to capture growth adequately. In an entrepreneurial economy, growth is what happens at the grass roots. By the time companies come to the market, the best is over  an idea supported by remarkably slow-growing or even shrinking real dividends in almost all countries over time.

    Another possibility raised by Smithers & Co is that investors expect countries with fast rising GDP per head to have strengthening currencies. So it makes sense to pay high multiples of earnings at today’s exchange rate, since a rising currency will make good the difference.

    If investors do in fact think that, they should be careful. According to Professor Dimson, of the 19 countries in his 110 year study, none has shown average currency movements over the period of more than 1 per cent per annum either way after inflation. Another suggestion from Mr Smithers brings me to a question raised at the outset  whether corporate managers, like investors, overpay for growth. Fast growing economies, he says, should have faster depreciation rates, presumably because any given piece of plant or equipment will be obsolete more quickly. It is doubtful, he adds, whether accounting practice recognises this properly.

    More generally, companies may be tempted by the lure of high growth to pitch their prices low when first entering a market. Thereafter, their profits will rise rapidly with GDP. But if their starting point is too low, they are making the same mistake as portfolio investors who buy stocks too high. The end result in both cases is a disappointing long term return.

    Does this mean you should steer clear of emerging markets? Not at all. In non crisis times they offer diversification, which is worth something in itself. But if you are invested in emerging markets to begin with, you should of course buy some old style, low growth developed market stocks on just the same grounds

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